My Rambling Thoughts

Priced out of the market

News: Job-hunter tries to stay positive

Date: 25 Sep 2016. Source: ST.

The first thing that job seeker Leonard Lau usually gets asked by headhunters is his age.

The second is his last-drawn salary.

Says the IT project manager, 46: "After that, they usually don't call back."

The hard truth: Singapore is hit hard and multiple industries are in decline simultaneously. O&G, shipping, manufacturing, finance, services...

Many cushy jobs are gone... and will not come back.

The problem when you stay too long in an organization is that you become "over-specialized". You may do well there, but your skills may not be applicable to another company, especially one outside the industry.

IT project manager, nearly $10k? That seems pretty high for this role. :lol:

Still, he manages to land some interviews, so it is not a complete show stopper. He should learn from them and polish up his interview skills. :-D

Captain, ship is taking in a lot of water

News: Rickmers note holders join forces to get payment

Date: 29 Sep 2016. Source: ST.

Over 50 note holders who together hold $26m worth want principal plus interest back

More trouble has struck financially-embattled container ship operator Rickmers Maritime, which wants bond holders to accept payouts far less than they invested.

Now a group of retirees, businessmen and others who have each sunk $250,000 or more into the bonds issued by the trust are demanding to get their principal back in full, with interest, immediately.

They are trying to do this by exercising a so-called "acceleration" clause in the bond contract.

50+ note holders holds $26 mil. Hmm...

Rickmers Maritime is unable to pay the $4.2 mil coupon, how can it cough up the $100 mil principal?

Mr Jeremy Tan is quite rich if he can buy $2.25 mil of notes. Let's hope it is not his entire retirement fund.

Steel businessman Mr Ong C. T. has six or seven O&G notes. Good luck!

It is quite obvious these people went in for the yield without assessing the risk. It is easy to criticize in hindsight, but risks are often downplayed in the go-go years.

More Swiber casualty

News: How Singapore's Not-Really-Rich Have Been Burned by Swiber Bonds

Date: 20 Sep 2016. Source: Bloomberg.

When Elaine Tham signed an "accredited investor" form with her bank in Singapore two years ago, she took a fateful step toward losing all the money she had set aside for her children's education.

Based on her financial profile and investment priorities — her need for S$150,000 ($110,000) to pay university fees — a local branch of HSBC Holdings Plc had initially categorized her as a "medium risk" investor. But because the value of her property and car entitled her to "accredited" status, a category reserved for wealthy investors, Tham says she was persuaded to take a riskier path. She agreed to invest S$250,000 in the bonds of a small Singapore energy-services company, Swiber Holdings Ltd., which said in August that it won't be able to repay its bondholders.

Tham is one of many Singaporeans who lost money by investing in Swiber, which sold an unusually high proportion of its bonds to the wealthy clients of banks in Singapore. Amid signs last week that more local energy-services companies are being dragged down by the prolonged slump in global oil prices, some are urging quick action to plug loopholes in Singapore's investor-protection rules.

Cry me a river. Bloomberg is wrong; these are rich folks. You need to have $2 mil in asset (or earn $25k/month) and $250k cash. If such a person is not rich, then I don't know what is.

There are two ways to game the accredited investor status.

First, you can overstate your home equity by understating the outstanding balance. But your house must still cost more than $2 mil, which is still a very high bar. The article makes it look like it is easy to own such a property. Not so. Most are under $1.5 mil.

Second, you can buy the bond on leverage (max $125k, I think). However, $125k is still a lot of cash to pony up.

In other words, even if one can game the status, he must be pretty well-off to do so.

These investors were burnt due to their search for yield and downplaying the risk in good times. As fixed-deposit interests remain below 2%, investors are turning to bonds for the 5%+ yield instead. Bonds are often viewed as a step-up to fixed-deposits: slightly higher risk for higher returns, but still safe. In good times, such an investor appears savvy. In bad times, that is when we realize research is important.

If the bond were $25k per piece, then it would have affected the middle-income investors (aka Lehman II). At $250k, I say it's a rich man's problem.

Just a piece of plastic


Mr Gold

The Lego Mr Gold is a true limited edition, with only 5,000 released worldwide. You cannot buy it off-the-shelf, you have to be lucky when you buy a regular sealed-in-package Series 10 Minifigure.

A genuine one is priced at US$1,500 on the secondary market, but a POGO replica, as pictured above, is available for RMB 9.90 (US$1.50).

Replica minifigs have around for several years. The replica market exists because of artifical scarcity and the huge disconnect between the cost and going price.

They are the bane of rare minifig collectors. Why pay hundreds of dollars for a rare minifig when you can get a replica for two dollars?

To the replica makers, it is just another piece of cheap plastic.

Not aboard TtR Rails & Sails

This is the first standalone Ticket-to-Ride game in a long time. Unfortunately, it disappoints.

  • Complexity: two decks, trains and ships
  • Time: 90 mins vs 45 mins
  • RRP: US$80 vs US$50

TtR is one of the board games that got it right the first time. As a result, latter editions and expansions have always felt chunky.

Another game that "suffers" the same fate is Carcassonne. And no wonder. These two are light games. Any heavier and their joy-to-weight ratio goes down.

It is bad for the companies as they are not able to replicate their cashcow. But that is not our problem. We just enjoy the timeless original and don't get suckered into buying expansions and new editions. :-P

My criteria for new board games is now very stringent. There are still some loopholes:

  • missing classics such as Puerto Rico (with updated graphics)
  • first and second expansion packs
  • anniversary or special editions

On the whole, my board game collection will grow glacially. What I need is people to play them with! :lol:

Swiber'ed

News: Swiber defaults on upcoming coupon payment due on Aug 2, 2016

Date: 1 Aug 2016. Source: ST.

SWIBER Holdings is unable to pay the upcoming coupon payment for the series 001 Trust Certificates due on August 2, 2016, provisional liquidator, Cameron Duncan, said on Monday.

The S$150 million 6.50 per cent certificates due 2018 were issued by its subsidiary, Swiber Capital Pte Ltd as part of the latter's US$500 million multicurrency Islamic trust certificates issuance programme.

6.5% is good interest rate, and more importantly, safe — especially in 2013 (when the product was launched) — when O&G was in its prime.

I wonder how much UOB is owed. $100 mil? I doubt it is low since it is one of the ten principal bankers.

Latest news: DBS made two short-term bridging loans totaling US$146 mil to Swiber in June and July, accounting for 27% of its exposure.

Swiber used it to redeem maturing bonds.

DBS expected to be paid back when UK-based fund AMTC was supposed to buy US$200 mil of preference shares in a Swiber subsidiary in late July.

DBS got Swiber'ed.

Ripple effect in local O&G sector?

News: Singapore bank concerns grow on oil and gas sector as DBS reports Swiber exposure

Date: 29 Jul 2016. Source: ST.

DBS Group Holdings, Singapore's biggest lender, said it expects to recover about half of its S$700 million exposure to the collapse of a big Singapore oilfield services firm, as the city-state's two other top banks flagged mounting concerns about loans to the oil and gas sector.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp and United Overseas Bank, Singapore's second- and third-largest lenders by assets, along with DBS, have long maintained prudent lending standards and capital levels that make them among the safest banks in the world.

But the 60 per cent slump in oil prices over the past two years is beginning to impact them, as the lenders' main activity is centred on Southeast Asia, where oil and gas is a key industry. Banks are being hit by both poor demand for loans from the sector and by more loans turning sour, and both OCBC and UOB issued a dour outlook for oil and gas when they reported earnings on Thursday.

Swiber Holdings became the biggest Singapore business so far to fall victim to oil's slump, after it said on Thursday (July 28) it had filed for liquidation.

Swiber has around US$1.43 billion of liabilities and DBS was owed S$700 million of that?

In a report from March 2016, DBS, OCBC and UOB all have quite big exposure to the O&G sector. DBS: $31 bil (11%), OCBC: $18 bil (8%), UOB: $10 bil (5%).

Well, in 2014, O&G was the darling and no one could have foreseen oil prices would fall to US$20+ per barrel. So, borrow, leverage and expand. There is nothing easier than betting on a sure-win horse.

In the latest news, Swiber has rescinded its wind-up application and will go under judicial management instead. There is now a total of US$50.5 mil claims against it.

Swiber took this action with the help of one of its major financial creditor. IMO, it should be DBS, since it looks like it has the biggest exposure and the most to lose.

You know the saying. Owe $700,000, you have a problem. Owe $700 mil, the bank has a problem.

Single mum driving Uber, sound?

News: Uber mum, only Caucasian woman in Singapore fleet, driven to make kids' lives easier

Date: 17 Jul 2016. Source: ST.

Uber's only Caucasian woman driver partner makes the best of a bad situation after divorce

Passengers stepping into Ms Anna Gibbons' Mitsubishi Attrage are usually surprised to find their Uber driver is a blonde, 6ft-tall woman.

The 44-year-old Briton was once told by a Malaysian man that she was the first white woman he had ever spoken to.

"I've also been asked by a drunk guy one night if I was a Chinese taxi driver in disguise," she said.

This is not so much an Uber story than the wife's side of an expat divorce.

Expats are highly paid and thus highly-sought after. SPGs will fling themselves left and right. Eventually one still stick. In that new bond, both are happy — as long as the money lasts. But we seldom hear about the one left behind.

It's not like Ms Gibbons is hapless. By my estimate, she is getting $5k/month. Usually, that is sufficient. But expats have a high standard of living to maintain.

Anway, I doubt Ms Gibbons is breaking even from Uber. And her working hours are very restricted: school hours (a 6-hour window perhaps) and the midnight shift (kids asleep). That could be just 3 to 5 rides per day.

Tackling the last mile

News: 6-month trial to allow all-day access to foldable bicycles on public transport

Date: 20 Jul 2016. Source: ST.

A six-month trial that will allow commuters to bring foldable bicycles and personal mobility devices (PMDs) on buses and trains at all hours, will be launched soon, in what observers say is a significant step in encouraging commuting by bicycle.

Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan announced the upcoming pilot on Wednesday (July 20) at the Walk Cycle Ride SG Symposium, held at the Mediacorp Campus.

Currently, foldable bicycles are allowed on public transport only during off-peak hours.

"However for this trial to be a success, public transport commuters and those who bring their bicycles and PMDs onto the buses and trains need to give-and-take, and be considerate to one another," said Mr Khaw.

This is an extremely good move! The first and last mile has always been the achilles heel of public transport. SMRT provides bicycle racks at their MRT stations, but that solves only the first mile problem. The last mile remains an issue.

Many people are skeptical how the Government can implement the car-lite vision. The reason is well-founded. Public transport will never be as convenient as private transport. But the Government is making significant changes that show that they are serious.

And the rise of personal mobility devices (PMDs) is a game changer. As recent as five years ago, the only choice was the foot-powered bicycle. Now, electric PMDs are all the rage. They are affordable (a few hundred dollars only) and they get you to your destination without you breaking into a sweat.

I've always wanted to scoot around on an electric scooter. :-D

And how about the people who still want to drive? Tax the hell out of them! :lol:

Even coffeeshops struggle with rental?!

The main tenant of two coffeeshops, at Yishun blk 848 and Bukit Batok blk 155, owe four months rent mounting to $680k. There are 22 stalls in total.

That works out to be $85k per month. :-O It is roughly $6.5k/stall with two bigger stalls at $13k. Wow.

(Each stall needs to pay a deposit of $12k to $25.5k. That is an indication of the stall size and rent.)

And that is excluding subletting.

Assuming $2 profit per serving, a $6.5k stall must sell 107 servings per day before breaking even. The main tenant and the landlord just sit back and watch the money roll in.

What I don't understand is that the main tenant claims he makes a loss of $30-40k annually, and he decides to quit because the landlord raises the rent from $6k to $10k? It does not make any sense.

Being a hawker used to be a lucrative profession. Now, so much of it goes to the landlord.

PSLE gets a makeover

From 2021, PSLE will be the sum of Achievement Levels (AL) in four subjects, rather than an aggregate score.

ALMarks
1>= 90
2>= 85
3>= 80
4>= 75
5>= 65
6>= 45
7>= 20
8< 20

AL1 is equivalent to today's A*. Need score of 22 or less to get to Express stream. 26 or more is, technically, fail.

MOE has already foreseen many ties, so they have laid out tie-breaker rules.

I predict the cut-off for top schools will be 4 to 6, if not an outright 4. This is the same as top JCs today: a cut-off score of 6 for 6 'O' level subjects — 6 straight A1s! Affiliated schools can get up to 4 points off, which is a giant loophole.

And that is one of the loophole here too. Affiliated primary schools have priority. Which means it is now even more important to get into good primary schools.

A problem remains. How will the secondary school place the students in classes? Today, it is easy to use the PSLE score as it is very fine-grained. And then it struck me. This is what MOE is trying to avoid: the idea is to mix the students! Well, the school can still stream the students after six months or a year if they want.

I say this is a good change, because once you hit AL1, there is no need to chase after the last mark. The problem now is the lack of granularity between AL1 and AL2. Someone who gets 89 in all four subjects will have 8 points, a far cry from 4 points.

But this should be rare. Using 'O' levels as a guideline, it is easier to get A1 than A2 if you know the subject well. It will be the same case here.

Sharing economy is difficult

News: Disgruntled woman takes next-door neighbour to task over Airbnb rentals

Date: 9 Jul 2016. Source: Today.

She hired a private investigator to obtain evidence, costing her a few thousand dollars

Tensions over users of short-term rental services such as Airbnb are rising, and the latest case is a woman who went to great lengths to take her neighbour to task for housing paying guests through the popular home-sharing website.

The authorities here are still considering if they should review the regulations governing short-term stays, to see if they may be eased for private properties.

Right now, regulations by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) state that it is illegal for private-home owners to lease their properties for fewer than six months.

Uber and Airbnb are very good ideas aided by the ubiquitous mobile phone and GPS. However, the practical considerations threaten to sink their implementation.

For Uber, it is licensing and insurance. For Airbnb, it is zoning laws and threat to residential serenity.

Long live United States of America, 240 years and a day

Nominees for the people with the least integrity:

  • FBI Director James Comey
  • Attorney General Loretta Lynch

James Comey: Hillary Clinton is guilty of grossly negligent mishandling of classified information, but should not face felony charges.

Loretta Lynch: accepted FBI's unanimous recommendation that the investigation be closed and that no charges be brought against any individuals within the scope of the investigation.

Proven to work better than Teflon (won't stick): the Clintons.

The law has been perverted.

  • Reward for whistle-blowing: traitor, exile and warrant for arrest.
  • Punishment for violating beyond-top-secret national security: president of USA.

Every citizen's dream

News: Could property cooling measures be permanent?

Date: 1 Jul 2016. Source: PropertyGuru.

Waterfront apartments in Singapore. Unless residential property prices plunge dramatically, the government may not lift the cooling measures, reported Singapore Business Review citing a Maybank Kim Eng report.

"Singapore households have $840 billion of capital, or 209 percent of GDP tied up in residential property. This has resulted in lower disposable income, which has impeded consumer spending and muzzled entrepreneurship. Another less obvious implication of property 'overinvestment' is that home price appreciation fuels wage inflation, reducing Singapore's cost competitiveness," the report said.

Everyone aspires to be a landlord, to be a rent-seeker, to earn passive income. This is the "Singapore aspiration". This is why expensive properties continue to sell, rents go up and why there are no home-grown businesses.

If only a few people do it, they win big. If too many people do it, the cost to society becomes too high: impeded consumer spending, muzzled entrepreneurship, wage inflation and reduced cost competitiveness.

This is a "spiral of doom". At least the Singapore Government recognizes it and tries to put a stop to it by adding taxes. It has not worked very well because the property developers have strong holding power and they have not blinked — so far.

Car sharing go electric

transport

News: Electric car-sharing scheme to be rolled out from 2017

Date: 1 Jul 2016. Source: ST.

An electric car-sharing scheme will be rolled out islandwide next year, offering commuters a greener alternative to owning a car.

The authorities have appointed BlueSG, a subsidiary of French electric car-sharing operator Bollore Group, to run a fleet of 1,000 cars by 2020 under the national electric vehicle (EV) car-sharing programme.

This addition will be significantly more than the 300 shared cars currently in the market.

1,000 cars by 2020. Does that mean 1,000 COEs will be curled back? Hmm...

Looking at the ratio, they are expecting to remove 7,750 cars and serve 32,500 drivers?

I like car sharing, but for this to work, it has to be convenient. That means people will only opt for it if their carparks have it.

Based on Car Club's experience, the cars will be under-utilized on weekdays and over-subscribed on weekends. The rental has to be high — as high as car ownership — to dampen demand. The advantage is that you only pay for the hours you use. I won't be surprised at $10-15/hour rate.

The one-way model is very nice in theory. You only pay for the ride and not the parking. However, it only works if there are sufficient parking lots on the other side. Otherwise, you have to hold onto the car. I'll treat it as a bonus.

A tale of two Customer Service

Timeline:

1/6Placed order at Amazon
10/6Shipped out
11/6Delivered but not received by ezbuy?!
14/6Finally realized action was needed; a box was crushed
16/6Supposed to receive photo, but did not
18/6Finally set to received. My credits were automatically deducted and parcel submitted for shipping. Hmm...
21/6Finally got photo after repeated correspondence. Status changed to shipping to Singapore
24/6Reached Singapore
25/6Arranged local delivery (unsuccessfully)
30/6Finally delivered

I had good experience with ezbuy previously. Not this time. First, they never responded to email. At least their live-chat worked.

Then, I was unable to arrange the local delivery no matter what. That caused a delay of several days because I thought I arranged it successfully — on two separate tries. Their CS had to do it for me, again via live-chat.

If everything had gone well, I should have received the parcel by 19/6. It was delayed by 11 days.

I could have contacted Amazon as soon I knew about the crushed box, but I chose to wait until I had the photo for preliminary assessment. I then emailed Amazon without the photo and they immediately offered either a full refund or express ship a new one to me.

After I got the box in my own hands, I determined the damage was to the box only, so I sent the above photo to Amazon and told them I would settle for a partial refund. They reimbursed me 20% of the price. I am satisfied. :-)

UI that Android M finally got right

No more additional prompt when I disable Mobile Data. I know what I'm doing, thank you.

In Messages, no more "Text Message" on every text bubble. Why was that even there?

In a textbox, when I auto-complete a word, it automatically inserts a space. If I type a punctuation symbol next, it removes the space. Well done!

For the time widget, the keypad automatically pops-up, so we can enter the time directly. This should have been the case all along.