Finally, Super Heroes sets I'm interested in

Spider-Man: Daily Bugle Showdown

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476 pieces, RRP S$99.99 (US$49.99).

I like the building! I'm not interested in the flying machine nor most of the minifigs. I wonder how much I can get if I sell them off separately?

May be worth a try.

Batman: Arkham Asylum Breakout

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1,619 pieces, RRP S$299.99 (US$159.99).

I like the building, the fence and the van! However, at this price, I'll rather get other large sets. I'm not a Batman fan anyway.

Haircut Cyprus-style

Latest news out of Cyprus: still in bank holiday, but going to end soon. ECB has found a way to bypass the Cyprus parliament and force its way through. Should we be surprised?

Uninsured deposits at Bank of Cyprus, the largest bank, will suffer less than 30% haircut.

Uninsured deposits at Laiki, the second largest bank? Very likely to be totally wiped out.

Eurogroup head, Dijsselbloem, slipped his tongue and uttered the truth, "Cyprus a Template For EU". And denying he said it, of course.

And the real news is, the two banks have offshore branches in London and Russia that have no withdrawal limits through the whole week! It is speculated that the wealthy Russians — read, the Mob — have exploited the loophole.

Personally, I think this was left open because they don't want to offend the Mob.

We live in interesting times.

Breakdown of Cyprus bank accounts

The deadlock continues in Cyprus.

The current plan is to spare the depositors under 100k Euro and haircut those above. This at least maintains the illusion of banking security because bank deposits below 100k are supposed to be guaranteed.

It is revealed that there are 371,000 deposit accounts and only a mere 10,000 have above 100k Euro.

Food for thought.

Lone Ranger Western sets

It has been 11 years since Lego last came out with Western sets.

Rant: do we need the Lone Ranger and his sidekick Tonto in every set?

Stagecoach Escape

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279 pieces, RRP US$29.99.

Looks good. The stagecoach looks a bit too big, though.

Colby City Showdown

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587 pieces, RRP US$49.99.

This is an almost-identical remake of Gold City Junction (6765) from 1996.

The buildings are mostly a facade, but they still look good.

This reminds me of London Escape. That has one tavern and two horse carriages, that's why the building was just a facade.

Silver Mine Shootout

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644 pieces, RRP US$69.99.

This mine caught my eyes because it looks like a mine! :lol:

AFOL usually don't like this because of the use of BURP (Big Ugly Rock Piece) that are useless elsewhere.

More goodies from Lord Of The Rings

Technically, these are from The Hobbit, but I just group it under LOTR.

The problem with The Hobbit sets is that you get lots of dwarves...

An Unexpected Gathering

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652 pieces, RRP S$159.90 (US$69.99).

Can be a country-side cottage. A really expensive cottage.

Barrel Escape

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334 pieces, RRP US$39.99.

This seems to be a part of a bigger building. Where is the building?

This is a problem with Lego these days: it only gives you a partial setting.

Just overpriced!

Attack of the Wargs

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400 pieces.

I like this set — I have a soft spot for nature sets — until I saw the price. S$119.90! You got to be kidding me.

The RRP in US is US$49.99.

I believe the price will come down after a while. Attack On Weathertop was sold at the same price originally, but was made a Special and sold at S$89.90.

Depositors take a haircut

Cyprus banks impose a "one-off" levy of 6.75% on bank deposits of 100k Euro or less, and 9.9% for deposits over 100k Euro.

This is an end-game move. Who would trust banks after this?

I'll be surprised if this doesn't induce a bank run in EU.

COE is partially cooled down

Cat B COE is cooled down — by 37%. That's pretty significant!

The price for cat A obviously reflects the backlog from the 100% loan folks. I wonder if these people are happy or sad that they got their COE. :lol:

The cat A backlog will be filled very quickly with cat E from this and previous bidding cycles. The price for cat A could sink like a rock in the next cycle. It would be interesting to watch.

My prediction for cat A remains at $50k.

Cooled down COE

Today is the first COE bidding cycle after the cooling measure. My best guess: cat A $50k, cat B $60k.

C is fundamentally insecure

C is fundamentally insecure due to one reason: no array bounds check.

Look at this code:

char buf[10];

buf[10] = 1; // out-of-bounds!

Modern C compilers will try to do static bounds checking, so this will fail to compile. However, this code will compile and cause memory corruption if g() is called:

void f(char *buf) {
  buf[10] = 1;
  }

void g(void) {
  char buf[10];

  f(buf);
  }

Computers are insecure

Our present computers are reasonably secure. With sandboxing, DEP, ASLR and other techniques, it takes a talented hacker to break in. However, the barrier to hacking computers remains somewhat low because he can then sell his know-how to 1,000 script kiddies.

Why are our computers hackable?

A lot has to do with the most used low-level programming language today — C.

C is small and lean. However, it is designed for a computer in the 1970s. It is archaic and out-of-date. It has no notion of security at all. Surely we can do better.

You'll notice that part of the hacking involves breaking out of the sandbox. What is that?

Basically, the app (a browser in this case) is running an interpreted language, such as Flash, Java, JavaScript or PDF. These languages are "safe". However, the interpreters, written in C, are not.

The idea is to exploit bugs in the interpreter to make it do things that it is not supposed to be able to do.

But breaking out of the app sandbox only allows the hacker to do things the app is allowed to do. To take over the computer, they need to hack into the OS.

(Although this is not really needed on Windows, as most users run as the Administrator.)

From the statement "found a kernel vulnerability that granted elevated privileges and arbitrary command execution outside of the sandbox with system privileges", I think this exploit is one class above the others.

A filibuster in real life!

I'm not dreaming, am I?

A real filibuster!

In the Senate, a filibuster allows a senator to speak for as long as he wants. If he leaves the floor, that's it.

I first saw it in Mr Smith Goes to Washington (1939, B&W), but that was fictional. (And it wasn't a very good film, despite its relatively-classic status.)

But the filibuster scene caught my attention.

Rand Paul, son of Ron Paul (the 2012 Presidential hopeful), asked some very valid questions — it is not a time-wasting filibuster.

The main reason for the filibuster is to block John Brennan's appointment as CIA chief.

There are rumors that John Brennan is a Muslim. Personally, I won't be surprised. To me, Obama is a closet Muslim himself.

To watch: the next COE bidding exercise

After LTA pulled out the rug under everyone's carpet, no one has any idea what the new COE price should be.

LTA is very nice to give one additional week for the market to digest the news. The next COE bidding exercise is on 11-13 March 2013.

Kah Motors (distributor for Honda cars) has set the COE rebate level at $42k. This means they don't believe the COE will be lower than that. (The rebate level is typically set a little lower than the expected COE.)

Take the Altis 1.6. It costs $133.9k with $78.3k COE. If the COE drops to $45k, then the car would cost $100.6k. Since the OMV is $14.9k, the buyer is able to loan $60.4k (60%). He has to come up with $40.2k.

Still not a small amount.

But, if he has an existing car to trade in, most likely he can get back $20-30+k, so he just need to top-up a little.

Many people think COE will remain high because there are many cash-rich people who can pay cash upfront.

I'm skeptical.

But regardless of our beliefs, the tide is going out and soon we shall see who is swimming naked.

The overdued car cooling measures

Change in ARF:

Luxury cars are going to be hit hard.

And that's not all. Fresh from MAS, effective tomorrow:

LTV = Loan-to-Value.

Loan tenture is also limited to 5 years.

This is a really drastic measure. Imagine an "entry-level" $140k car today, that means $56k upfront! How many people can afford it?

Very few, that's why it is obvious COE will drop — very quickly.

The max tenture of 5 years should not be an issue. It is at most 1.5x or 2x the current installment.

However, the cash upfront is an issue. My totally wild-ass-guess says an average Singaporean can fork out max S$20k one-shot.

But suppose he has a car he can sell for $20k, so he can afford to pay $40k cash upfront. This means he can afford a $100k car (60% loan). In other words, COE will drop by $40k.

My take

I must point out the difference in the two measures. In the change to the ARF, you pay an extra tax. The target is luxury car buyers.

For the loan limit, severe as it is, you do not incur any extra charges. In fact, you save on interest charges! (You should thank MAS. :lol:)

I believe the target is the marginal car buyers. Just like flats, now you need a hefty downpayment to "prove" that you can afford it.

Where are the budget notebooks?

After months of procrastination, I finally went shopping for a budget notebook to replace my father's old PC.

The first thing that struck me is that there are very few notebooks below S$800. Most low to mid-end notebooks are between $900 and $1,100.

After a while, the Acer Aspire V5-571 (53334G50Ma) caught my eyes.

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Intel i5-3337U 1.8 GHz, 15.6" (720p), 4 GB RAM, 500 GB HD, DVD-drive, 2.1 Kg. For S$799.

Not a fantastic model, but is good enough for non-gaming purposes.

Keyboard layout is also okay. (I'm quite particular about keyboard layout.)

There are two innovations with this model: one, it is pretty slim — for a standard notebook. Two, it does away with the "legacy" Ethernet slot and the VGA port. It provides a special Ethernet/VGA cable in case you need them, though.

2013 Lego wishlist

Here are some of the medium-to-large sets that pass my "first round" of selection:

Looks like the list isn't that long after all. :lol:

However, I still have a few 2012 sets that I haven't gotten... :-O

Playsets, count me out

2012 was a lean year for me. There weren't too many sets I was interested in. The ones that I was interested in were too expensive!

2013 is different. There are many sets I'm interested in — so many that I can only pick and choose some.

(Sometimes, I think of the old days when I could just buy whatever I like. Ah, those were the days. :lol:)

Museum Break-in

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I would love this set if the Museum were bigger or even better, standalone.

Lego just have to make this a complete playset on its own, that's why there is the police, the robbers, their vehicles and the place to rob.

Typically, I prefer civilian sets over police and fireman themed sets.

As a result, this set is quite low on my wishlist.

To Russia, with love

This just in: while everyone is waiting for the 2012 DA14 asteroid to merely pass close to Earth, Russia got "hit" by an estimated 10-ton meteorite.

The asteroid's speed of entry was at least 54k km/h (no mistake; it's 54,000 km/h), but luckily it shattered 30-50 km in the atmosphere, so the damage was spread over a wide area.

(Note that the total energy released is the same whether it shattered or not.)

Why was this asteroid undetected? It is just estimated to be 10-metres wide. Today, we can only track 1-km wide asteroids with 90-95% confidence.

But don't worry, such small asteroids will not cause mass-extinction events. Only 30-km wide asteroids can do the job.

What LTA will never consider: amnesty

As the COE is at a record-high level, people come up with all sorts of ideas to "reallocate" the COE quota.

Some of the ideas are with merit, but they all have two flaws: they are easy to game and they do not address the root issue.

The issue here is the small number of COE. Reallocation just favours one group over another. What we need to do is to increase the COE.

Let me put forward my idea. :-D

LTA should have some incentive for car owners to give up their cars early.

Here is a simple idea: LTA should pay a premium of 30% over the car's current market value. This should be attractve enough for some car owners to give up driving.

LTA has collected enough from COE. It is time to give some back.

To prevent abuse:

• Capped at $80,000
• Limited to the first 100,000 cars
• Only valid for cars from 5 to 8.5 years old
• Cut-off date of six months ago (you must own the car since July 2012)
• Limited to one per family
• The immediate family is not allowed to own a car for the next 3 years

A year of data-mining

One of my goals this year: to complete and polish up several data-mining scripts this year.

I have put them off long enough.

I'm going to work on them one at a time. Slowly, but surely.

Massive jam, a taste of 6.9mil

KJE closed due to an accident. The issue? All the roads in CCK and Yew Tee were jammed up. Once you are on the road, there is often no turning back, even if you want to.

It took me 30 minutes to reach the KJE. Normally, it takes less than 5 minutes.

There should be traffic wardens to block roads and direct traffic away from KJE.

Singapore is not ready for even a single disruption on its expressways.

Actual by-election results

By-election results

The news to watch: the gold moves

The German Central Bank has finally decided to repatriate its gold from the US Federal Reserve (45%) and Banque de France (11%). It itself is holding 31% of its own gold.

Strangely, it is still keeping the remaining 13% with the Bank of England.

Germany tried to deny it just two months back, but now its actions say it all: it isn't yours until it is in your hands.

Traditionally, gold is held "in trust": the gold is sold, but is still kept in the original gold vault. Now that Germany is asking for physical delivery, let's see if there is a rush for more repatriation.

As the saying goes, the first to jump ship is a rat; the last is dead.

Modern economists say gold is a barbarous relic. However, it still works as a medium of store.

Basically, if you cannot finish spending the money you have today (unlike US :lol:), you need to save it. What preserves value over time and is convertible to the currency of the day?

But remember, only the gold that is in your hands is gold. The rest is just an illusion.

More pain for car owners wannabe

Car population in 2011 and 2012:

New monthly COE quota for Feburary to July:

This is really a famine period. It is not a good time to buy or change cars.

Now they are serious!

Finally, a Cooling Measure with a bite. :lol:

The premise behind this cooling measure is simple: one household should only have one property.

This round targets a few groups of people. I'll only mention two.

PRs

To sell HDB flat after buying private property.

No subletting.

5% ABSD (Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty) on first property purchase. Second property? 10%.

Basically, no more hogging of HDB flats. That is for citizens only.

Second property

A long standing problem which was unaddressed was HDB flat dwellers buying a second private property for investment.

MAS really hits them hard this time.

MAS tightens the Loan-to-Value limits on second loan, as well as increase the minimum cash down-payment from 10% to 25%. This is serious. You'll need $375k for a $1.5mil condo.

7% ABSD on second property purchase. You'll need an extra $105k cash for a $1.5mil condo.

The bubble gets bigger

COE bidding 9/1:

LTA only allows 786 cat A, 701 cat B and 485 cat E vehicles per month (from August 2012 to January 2013). That is a pittance.

Car population as of 31 Dec 2011 by category:

LTA needs to discard its formula-based approach to solve the COE issue.

I propose that LTA learn from the "seven years of feast, seven years of famine" story.

For cat A, LTA should target a monthly quota of 3,029. This is to flatten the supply in the long term. It should do this even though it is in deficit now. It will claw back the excess COEs in 2015-2017.

There will be even worse traffic jams now, but that can be fixed with higher ERP and parking charges. When people feel the pinch, they'll think twice about driving.

(ERP and parking are too cheap compared to car ownership.)

There is one possible problem: that the car owners choose to renew the COE in 2015, so LTA won't get the COEs back. (And that is the cause of this issue in 2009: 2006 car owners did not de-register their cars after 3 years.)

This can be avoided with a COE renewal levy. :-D

Food business is not always profitable

What does a monthly rental $500,100 mean?

The bare minimum breakeven rental is $4,630.56 to be shared by 60 food stalls and 48 wet-market stalls.

That is $4.6k that could have gone into the stall owner's pocket.

Guess why hawkers and taxi drivers can no longer make good money? Because they now have to go through "middleman" who takes a big cut of their hard work.

But if you ask me, that is just how the Singapore Government wants it. They don't want low-educated people to have high income.

Kopitiam just overpaid for its bid. People who patronize hawker centres are price-sensitive. Now it has no choice but to wait until its own lease runs out.

Runaway brides

This is a not-so-unexpected consequence of high resale flat prices and long waiting time for new flats.

Water leak

Based on a multi-day test, my baseline 24/7 electrical usage, consisting of fridge, PC and modem/router, is 80 kWh per month.

(In July 2012, I tested that these three appliances use 86.6 kWh per month.)

What is also surprising is 0.5 m^3 of water usage. I have a water leak!

Subscription is the new model

Everyone is going for the subscription model these days, taking a leaf out of the lucrative cable TV, broadband, mobile phone model.

Even movie theatres are now doing it. Amazing.